Decoding the 2024 elections: A deep dive into the results
In the lead-up to the 2024 election, the polls predicted the ANC would lose its majority. At the time many people, including political parties, warned that the polls must be taken with a pinch of salt, because no-one believed that this would be the election where the ANC would fall below 50%.
The thoughts were that 2029 would be the first time we saw this. Much to the amazement of the country, the polls turned out to be right.
The situation has now left the ANC, who got just more than 40%, scrambling to work out a coalition agreement to form the next government before the 14-day period is over.
This is when the first National Assembly sitting must take place. At this sitting, the country's next president and a speaker of the Parliament will be elected.
While the polls may have been on the money, one crucial aspect they didn't model for is voter turnout.
This refers to the number of voters who pitch up at voting stations on the day of the election and make their mark, and it turned out to be an important reason why South Africa got the result that we did.
Over the years, voter turnout has steadily declined, with just over 66% of voters turning up in 2019. The 2021 voter turnout for the local government elections was a shocking 45.86%.
In 2024, there were 27 million people registered to vote, with only 58.57% actually voting. A declining voter turnout is a serious indictment on all our political parties, as it reflects a mistrust of the political process.
In this week's Friday Briefing we decode the 2024 elections to help us make sense of what happened.
News24's election analyst Dawie Scholtz takes a deep dive into the results and considers how voter turnout impacted on the results. He also reflects on another important aspect - demographics.
We also have a submission from Wits' School of Governance's Matlala Setlhalogile, who examines what the results say about the country.
In our third submission, News24's columnist and political analyst Mpumelelo Mkhabela delves into whether the 2024 results reflect a democracy that is strengthening or should we have some concerns.
We hope you enjoy the submissions while you wait for news on how our next government will be structured.
Best,
Vanessa Banton
Opinions Editor
2024 political earthquake: How shock results upended SA's electoral landscape
Dawie Schlotz reflects on two key drivers of the 2024 election results - voter turnout and demographics - and what impact each had on the final shock result which saw the ANC losing its majority for the first time in 30 years.
Election outcomes signal a spectre of grievance politics
With widespread frustrations and anger towards the establishment, parties such as the uMkhonto weSizwe Party and the Patriotic Alliance were bound to feast, writes Matlala Setlhalogile.
Voter shifts and judicial integrity: The dual edges of SA's democracy
Despite some weaknesses, South Africa's democracy is advancing and depending on the kind of government that will be formed after the ongoing coalition talks, the democratic project can strengthen further, writes Mpumelelo Mkhabela.
