This week will be the last real test of whether the GNU is a workable government or just a short-term deal that’s run its course, writes Qaanitah Hunter.
There’s one last test for the survival of the government of national unity. And it comes on Wednesday.
That’s when Parliament votes on the Appropriations Bill, which is the final legal step to pass the national Budget.
The risks of not passing the Budget by the Constitutionally imposed deadline of the end of July are serious.
However, the ANC enters the week having attempted to reduce its reliance on the DA as it draws closer to ultimately severing ties with the DA in the GNU.
As I write this, the ANC’s national executive committee was supposed to meet to ultimately decide on the fate of the GNU and come up with an iteration for the GNU 2.0.
Sitting upright
But Wednesday’s vote was an important precursor to finally determine whether this brittle marriage survives for a bit or not.
While I was unbothered about GNU drama before, I am sitting up straight and watching this week closely. If the Appropriations Bill doesn’t pass, it’s not just the end of the GNU. It could mean the end of government.
To explain: the Appropriations Bill is one of two key pieces of legislation that allow the government to spend money. It breaks the budget into what are called “budget votes,” allocating money to different departments like Health, Education, or Human Settlements. Without this law, salaries can’t be paid, services can’t be delivered, and the state simply doesn’t function.
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Because the DA, one of the main partners in the GNU, is threatening to vote against parts of the Budget. They’ve singled out departments like Higher Education and Human Settlements. In response, some ANC members have quietly suggested that they might retaliate and vote down DA-led department budgets.
And you can’t vote against part of the Budget without pulling the whole Budget down.
If the DA doesn’t support the Budget, the GNU may no longer be viable, and there would be no conceivable explanation of why the DA is part of government.
Packaging
Let’s be honest: there are only two reasons a coalition government exists. First, to elect a president. Second, to pass a Budget. That’s it. That’s the deal. Everything else – the media briefings, the branding, the talk of unity – is just packaging.
In exchange for their support, smaller parties get seats in the Cabinet or other senior roles. The GNU exists because no single party won a majority. It’s a partnership of necessity.
But the DA has long turned the Budget process into a negotiation tool. In their anger against the axing of Deputy Minister Andrew Whitfield, they threatened the Budget process if Ramaphosa doesn’t act against those whom they call corruption-accused ministers.
Behind closed doors, the ANC is frustrated. Senior leaders feel the DA is acting like an opposition party, not a governing partner. They point to the DA’s last-minute pull-out from national unity dialogues and the way it has handled foreign diplomacy.
Last week, the Presidency issued a blistering statement accusing the DA of harassing Mcebisi Jonas, Ramaphosa’s special envoy to the US. The statement accused the DA of trying to embarrass the country and acting in the interests of foreign powers. That’s not something you say about a political partner unless relations are already badly damaged.
Shaky ground
The GNU has been shaky from the start. But in the past few weeks, it has presented a case for why it shouldn’t be.
Some ANC leaders are ready to let the DA go. They see the 12 Cabinet positions held by DA ministers as opportunities to reward other parties, ones they see as more cooperative, and to keep some for themselves.
Because here’s the question: what’s the point of a party being in government if it refuses to pass the Budget?
In an interview with News24, DA chief whip George Michalakis said: “The Budget process and our presence in the GNU are two separate things.”
That simply doesn’t make sense. Without a Budget, there is no government. And without a functioning government, there is no GNU.
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The ANC has already started looking for support elsewhere – among smaller parties and independents – just like it did in February when it needed help with Budget 2.0.
Most MPs don’t want to go back to voters for a fresh election if something extreme were to happen. No one can afford the political risk.
So if the ANC manages to pass the Appropriations Bill without DA support, the big question becomes: why keep the DA in government at all?
And given all that has happened, if the DA were to be dropped, the world would keep turning.
The markets won’t crash. Investors won’t pack up overnight. Madiba won’t rise from the grave.
It’ll just be another day in South Africa – a country still battling poverty, inequality and unemployment, no matter who’s sitting at the Cabinet table.
But this week does matter. It’s the last real test of whether the GNU is a workable government or just a short-term deal that’s run its course.
If the Budget fails, the consequences are immediate and real. If it passes without the DA, their place in government becomes impossible to justify.
Either way, Wednesday will tell us everything we need to know.
- Qaanitah Hunter is a freelance journalist.
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