We are unlikely to see an Arab Spring in South Africa, despite several challenges affecting people, especially in the country's townships because of a lack of organistation and mobilisation, argues Ebrahim Harvey.
Analyst Moeletsi Mbeki has for years warned of an impending South African "Arab Spring", in reference to the revolutionary events in the early 2000s in much of the Arab world, after a long period of oppression and authoritarian rule.
Mbeki has been drawing such conclusions for about a decade, but we have not had anything even close to the magnitude of the revolutionary upheavals we saw then in much of the Arab world.
Over two years ago I inquired into the prospects of an Arab Spring in SA and concluded that it was unlikely to happen here. But could the depth and gravity of the current unprecedented crisis in black townships alter that scenario?
Before exploring that possibility, we need to recognise that something big happened in SA after our watershed 1994 non-racial and democratic elections. It seemed that the ANC, which convincingly won power in the 1994 elections, except in the Western Cape, created a massive restraint in black mass resistance against it.
However, we have seen an avalanche of black township "popcorn" protests since around 2004, when it started in the Free State. The term "popcorn" is meant to indicate that public protests, when these do occur, tend to be brief spontaneous outbursts, which did not last long.
Loyalty to the ANC
In an interview after delivery of the Budget last week, prominent economist Davie Roodt was also asked if we might have an "Arab Spring" in SA after the VAT increase of 1%, split between this and next year. He said that he doubted very much that it would happen here.
While it is very important to understand why such revolutionary events, on the cataclysmic scale of what we saw in the early 2000s in the Arab world, is still very unlikely to happen in SA, we need to ask if the current unprecedented socioeconomic and infrastructural crisis in black townships could lead to it.
Besides the apparent political restraints by the black masses in the townships, I earlier referred to after the ANC took office in 1994, there are several other reasons, I will now turn to.
I think that deep down in the subterranean consciousness of the black masses, despite the fact that socioeconomic conditions actually worsened increasingly over the past decade regarding the quality of basic services in the townships, there is still a high level of residual political loyalty to the ANC, but which is palpably in decline.
READ | Burning tyres and barricaded roads: Alexandra residents protest over illegal electricity connections
As the years went by over the past decade and the crisis deepened such loyalty increasingly dissipated among the black masses in the townships, where the majority of black people reside. The catalyst for this transition was the worsening of the material conditions of life in the black townships, relative to what these were during the apartheid years, as a direct result of the distinctly neoliberal nature of the policies the ANC adopted since the 2000 Municipal Systems Act was passed, together with the high toll of wanton corruption, mismanagement and incompetence.
Today, as a direct result of such local government legislation regarding the provision of basic services and its unprecedented commercialisation, corporatisation and commodification, numerous black township protests have taken place since 2004. It was after the 2000 new municipal laws that prepaid water and electricity meters, which have had devastating consequences in poor households, were installed and in fact imposed in poor black townships across SA.
The resultant loss of morale and alienation from the ANC ultimately led to the government losing the 2016 and 2021 local government elections in Gauteng, the powerhouse of production and nerve centre of the economy, and the 29 May 2024 national elections.
SACP contestation in elections
But what we have had, especially since June 2004 when protests started in the Free State, is an unstoppable avalanche of black township "popcorn" protests, seemingly spontaneous and without most times a visible leadership. This trend has persisted since then in the Free State, Gauteng and across the country.
The chief characteristic of those protests is that they were very explosive but spontaneous and short-lived, for a few days most times. While this remains the crux of my prediction for the future we need to ask if the decision by the South African Communist Party (SACP) in December 2024 to contest the 2026 local government elections on its own, and not for an ANC electoral victory, might lead to a more organised resistance in black townships.
READ | Mbhazima Shilowa: Internal tensions - Will SACP's election bid challenge alliance dynamics?
But unless the other burning issues, such as the recent VAT hike and the generalised devastating cost-of-living crisis, increases the momentum, intensity and duration of black township protests, such 'popcorn' protests will continue, and an Arab Spring remain elusive.
However, if conscious and increasing organisation of affected people were to happen it could raise the level of resistance and lead to it threatening existing power relations at a local level.
But building strong community organisation within townships is required for that prospect to materialise, which is where perhaps the SACP could come in, especially if it combined its efforts with the South African National Civic Organisation, also an ANC ally, which became moribund over the years and have themselves had very strained relations with the ANC over the past few years.
Demobilisation and disorganisation
There is a big difference between building strong community organisation and relying on attempts to spontaneously mobilise around burning issues of the day. Organisation provides a more ready and solid basis to mobilise communities in campaigns around such issues.
However, it is precisely organisation which has been lacking in black township protests over the past decade, which is why the term "popcorn" protests, spontaneous mobilisation-driven actions, originated.
But it is important to realise that the ANC itself played a big role in the political demobilisation and disorganisation in black townships through the municipal ward committees, which were often manipulated to disarm militant community organisations, rooted in the apartheid period.
It is furthermore important to realise that unless there is a shift to such strong community organisation around various issues thrown up by the protracted and deeply systemic municipal crisis we have had for long, we will not have the sustained mass uprising that we saw in the "Arab Spring" in SA.
- Ebrahim Harvey is a political writer, analyst, commentator and author.
*Want to respond to the columnist? Send your letter or article to opinions@news24.com with your name and town or province. You are welcome to also send a profile picture. We encourage a diversity of voices and views in our readers' submissions and reserve the right not to publish any and all submissions received.
Disclaimer: News24 encourages freedom of speech and the expression of diverse views. The views of columnists published on News24 are therefore their own and do not necessarily represent the views of News24.
