- The ANC in KwaZulu-Natal overwhelmingly voted in favour of a faction not aligned with President Cyril Ramaphosa over the weekend.
- Meanwhile, the faction loyal to Ramaphosa was unable to elect one person into the top leadership of the province.
- One political analyst says the election will weaken Ramaphosa's ability to surround himself with loyalists in the party.
In an apparent blow to President Cyril Ramaphosa, the KwaZulu-Natal ANC on Saturday voted against his allies and instead elected leaders sympathetic to former president Jacob Zuma.
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Sboniso Duma, who was elected provincial chairperson, and his so-called "Taliban" faction, who wore Arab kufiya scarves at the conference, made a clean sweep at the conference.
Meanwhile, former chairperson Sihle Zikalala's "Ankole" slate, in reference to its support for Ramaphosa, who is known to own many cattle, suffered heavy losses.
News24 spoke to two political analysts about whether the KwaZulu-Natal ANC provincial election outcome was a setback for Ramaphosa, and whether his leadership is currently at risk:
Is the KwaZulu-Natal ANC provincial election outcome a setback for Ramaphosa?
University of South Africa politics professor Dirk Kotz said the results showed 60% of the province supported Duma, while the remainder voted for the pro-Ramaphosa faction.
Kotz added this was nearly identical to the level of support Ramaphosa received in the province in the lead-up to the 2017 ANC elective conference.
He said:
So what I see is that the status quo remains as it was about five years ago, which means that Ramaphosa couldn't gain any significant support in KwaZulu-Natal over the period that he has been president.
"But also it wasn't the sort of a tide that completely went against Ramaphosa in the sense that he lost significant support in KwaZulu-Natal," he added.
Kotz said this meant while the provinces might recommend their preferred candidates, delegates from different provinces could still vote for who they liked.
"So, some of them will possibly vote in favour of Ramaphosa and those candidates on his slate. So it is not as [if] the Duma group won and therefore the whole of KwaZulu-Natal is lost for Ramaphosa," he said.
A candidate needed the support of at least three dominant provinces to be a credible contender at the elective conference, he added.
Kotz said the KwaZulu-Natal ANC results also indicated a level of frustration in Zikalala, who was the provincial leader during both the 2019 and 2021 elections, where the party suffered major losses.
"The leadership of Zikalala, certainly is seen in KwaZulu-Natal as more or less a failure, irrespective of whether he's from Ramaphosa's side or not. As the premier and the leader of the ANC, he was not as successful. And I think this is part of the reason for this outcome that we've seen now."
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Meanwhile, political analyst Ralph Mathekga, the author of Ramaphosa's turn: Can Cyril Save South Africa?, said the KwaZulu-Natal ANC conference showed Ramaphosa would still win a second term as party president, but might not get his allies in other powerful positions.
"I think if you look at what has happened in KwaZulu-Natal, they are very coherent, they are very strong, they were very clear, and it means the whole province is going to come to the [elective] conference very solid.
"They will be pushing very hard for the candidate they will be bringing from KwaZulu-Natal. They will want [former health minister Zweli] Mkhize. And it becomes very difficult for Ramaphosa to come in and say, 'I won the conference. And I'm going to push against corruption'."
Therefore, Mathekga said, there might be push-back against anti-corruption.
"So, with one faction having won so strong, it will certainly put the province in the direction that I don't think it shows good things about President Ramaphosa," he said.
Is Ramaphosa's position as president currently at risk?
He said the intended goals of the Phala Phala scandal, where large sums of money were reportedly stolen from Ramaphosa's farm, were never intended to remove him as president, but to weaken him.
"It was to force him to compromise on the step-aside rule or to soften up. He's been pushed to the corner, because of Phala Phala; he is going to have to make compromises that are not in line with the political trajectory people thought he was headed for," he said.
Mathekga said because his popularity had suffered as a result, Ramaphosa would have to justify his actions more.
"Phala Phala raises doubts about him, and that's why he's going to have to put more effort for people to believe in his project going forward," he said.
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Kotz added that Ramaphosa was under pressure at the moment because of the Phala Phala situation, but his support in the ANC remained steadfast.
"The fact that some of these things he didn't explain or didn't want to explain or refer to these investigations, creates a sense that he's not upfront with us; he's not frank with us.
"And therefore, I think, at the moment, he has a credibility problem, but what happens in the ANC is slightly something different. It's not about the public opinion. It's about people within the ANC making calculations about who will be best for them, the one who will take them into the 2024 for the best possible outcome.
"The question for them is: 'Who are the best possible candidates who will give the best possible opportunity to still be elected as a member of the national Parliament or provincial legislature," he said.
