There is no certainty that the pause in the US-Israel war on Iran will hold or that the Islamabad talks will yield anything. Every hour, the return to war gets postponed to the next hour.
The reasons for this uncertainty are the US Trump regime’s unpredictability, the Israeli Netanyahu regime’s predictability, and that neither can be trusted to abide by any agreements they make.
This war, launched illegally by the US and Israel on 28 February, was the second time in nine months that Iran was attacked while engaged in negotiations with the US.
In June 2025 and February 2026, talks were poised to reach deals to guarantee Iran would not develop a nuclear weapon.
Earlier, two years of negotiations resulted in the 2015 Iran Nuclear Deal. It ensured Iran would not develop a nuclear weapon. In 2018, Trump withdrew from the agreement, dooming it.
The lesson for the Iranians: the US cannot be trusted to uphold any agreement.
The 2026 war has no legitimacy. The US war objectives change daily. At different times, it has included regime change; ending an Iranian (nonexistent) nuclear weapons programme; destroying Iran’s civilian nuclear programme; destroying Iran’s defence systems; destroying Iran’s missile programme; and ensuring Iran cuts ties with its allies in the region.
None of these is legal. Regime change is illegal, and every state has the right to develop defensive capacities and develop its own weapons. Iran’s allies are, in the main, national liberation movements.
Palestinian resistance groups that Iran supports have an international law right to resist Israel’s occupation; Hezbollah was formed in response to Israel’s invasion and occupation of Lebanon in 1982, forcing Israel to end that occupation in 2000.
In contrast to the US, Israel has a clear goal: plunging Iran into long-term anarchy so it will pose no threat to the project of a ‘Greater Israel from the Nile to the Euphrates’.
And it doesn’t end with Iran. Certain Israeli politicians have already said that once Iran is dealt with, Israel must target Türkiye and Qatar.
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That is why Israel opposed any ceasefire with Iran. That is also why Israel refuses to end its deadly attacks on Lebanon: it hopes Iran will respond, thus undermining the ceasefire.
This despite the fact that the mediator, Pakistan’s prime minister, emphasised in the ceasefire announcement that it included Lebanon, repeating this in the UN Security Council.
For Iran, continued attacks on Lebanon prove, again, that the other side cannot be trusted.
More evidence of the untrustworthiness is that Trump agreed the ceasefire would lead to talks based on Iran’s 10-point proposal. Before talks even commenced, his press secretary claimed Iran’s proposal was “literally thrown into the garbage”.
The US repeatedly proves that it cannot be trusted. Six weeks after launching the illegal war and assassinating several Iranian leaders, the US has achieved nothing.
Iran’s nuclear programme survives; US attempts to seize Iran’s enriched uranium failed spectacularly; Iran’s missile supply and manufacturing programme survives. Additionally, the Strait of Hormuz, which for millennia was open to all shipping, is now under Iran’s control and has become its most important leverage.
Hormuz illustrates US impotence. When Iran started regulating shipping through the Strait, Trump threatened to ‘reopen’ it by force. But the world’s largest and most powerful navy could do nothing. He begged US allies to assist; none did. He begged his enemy, China, which laughed in his face.
The US and Israel have committed multiple war crimes: murdering thousands of Iranian and Lebanese civilians (including 168 schoolgirls in Minab) and displacing millions; destroying civilian infrastructure – hundreds of hospitals, scores of schools, universities, bridges, churches, mosques and a synagogue.
Will the ceasefire survive? Will it lead to a real cessation of hostilities?
Negotiations will be tough. Even if Iran’s proposal is the starting point, the US and Iran are far apart. Israel is not included.
Trump wants an end to the war. Having been fooled into thinking Iran would be defeated after “two to three days”, having achieved nothing, and risking November’s mid-term elections, he needs an out that he can spin as a victory.
READ: How did Pakistan broker a temporary truce between Iran and the US?
Iran, too, wants an end, but with guarantees of a permanent end so it will not repeatedly be attacked. Israel is the spoiler and is trying to undermine the ceasefire and ensure there is no long-term peace.
If the ceasefire holds in the long term, one consequence will be a regional reconfiguration in west Asia. Potentially, some Gulf Arab states will begin asking the US to remove its bases. The US military presence in the region has provided no security to them.
Rather, it made them targets. The region’s security in future will have to be governed by regional arrangements, not external security guarantors. The war has also emphasised for most people that the main regional destabiliser is Israel.
Iran hopes the talks and a long-term ceasefire will result in sanctions against it being lifted, allowing its economy and people to thrive.
- Jeenah is a senior researcher at the Mapungubwe Institute for Strategic Reflection.
